• Net Zero and Global Climate Goals:
  • EU aims for net-zero by 2050, with a 55% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030.
  • Global investment in clean energy is expected to exceed $3 trillion by 2024, with $2 trillion for clean technologies.
  • Africa needs $200 billion annually for energy goals, but it receives only 2% of global clean energy investment.
  • Developing countries seek $1.1–1.3 trillion annually, with $400 billion dedicated to adaptation.
• Climate Finance and Investment Needs:
  • Private sector mobilization is crucial, including green bonds, debt-for-climate swaps, and public-private partnerships.
  • Debt-for-climate swaps face challenges, including high costs and complex processes.
  • Tools like credit guarantees and off-grid solutions can help de-risk private capital investment.
  • African countries, especially in the Mediterranean, have varying approaches to green hydrogen, with Morocco leading, but political instability hampers regional cooperation.
• Energy Transition Challenges:
  • Decarbonization efforts are progressing in some sectors, like electricity, but harder in sectors relying on heat and steam (e.g., industry, transport).
  • Solar and wind energy are central to global renewable growth, with photovoltaic energy leading the renewable revolution.
  • Efficiency improvements (Jevon Paradox) can paradoxically increase consumption, slowing progress.
• Geopolitical and Economic Context:
  • Political context influences energy transition, with elections framing climate action as either an economic opportunity or burden.
  • In democracies, there's a tension between progressive forces advocating for green growth and populist backlash that resists costly energy transitions.
  • Geopolitical tensions, including US-China rivalry and fossil fuel dependency, complicate energy security and the shift to renewable energy.
• Developing Country Struggles:
  • Developing countries like India and those in Africa face the dual challenge of economic growth and meeting climate targets.
  • Africa, in particular, struggles with energy access, reliance on fossil fuels, and a significant investment gap in clean energy compared to advanced economies.
  • Adaptation financing has lagged behind mitigation, leading to mistrust and the need for COP29 to address these gaps.
• Energy Intensity and Critical Raw Materials (CRMs):
  • Despite advances in renewables, energy intensity is insufficiently reduced (1.3% annually, far below the needed 4% for Paris Agreement targets).
  • China dominates the market for critical raw materials (lithium, cobalt, nickel), essential for renewable technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles (EVs).
  • The global demand for these materials is expected to soar by 2040, with China’s dominance raising geopolitical concerns.
• Green Hydrogen and Regional Cooperation:
  • North Africa’s role in green hydrogen is evolving, with Morocco at the forefront but hindered by political instability and water scarcity.
  • Geopolitical tensions (e.g., Algeria vs. Morocco) disrupt regional energy cooperation in the Mediterranean.
  • Egypt faces macroeconomic instability and energy policy challenges, complicating its green energy transition.
• Climate Migration and Legal Frameworks:
  • Climate migration is increasing, with over 26 million internal displacements in 2023, mainly in South-to-South migration patterns.
  • The current legal framework is inadequate, with the 1951 Refugee Convention excluding climate refugees from protections.
  • Regional initiatives like the African Union’s Climate Change Strategy and the Kampala Convention are emerging but need a comprehensive international legal framework.
• Institutional Frameworks for Climate Action:
  • The European Green Deal faces challenges from far-right parties, while countries like India and Mexico balance climate action with economic growth and political considerations.
  • Climate action in democracies is often framed as a way to drive innovation and job creation, but is met with resistance from populist factions that view it as an elite project threatening industries and national identity.
  • Broad political coalitions and a strong institutional framework are needed to sustain energy transitions amidst shifting political landscapes.
• Future Outlook:
  • COP29, expected to finalize the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), will be crucial in determining future climate finance and strategies.
  • Global emissions may peak by 2024, but the pace of reduction is insufficient to meet the 2050 carbon neutrality goal, requiring urgent multilateral cooperation and action.