Rise of Economic Nationalism

Key Transformations in Global Trade

1. Protectionist Surge and Trade Wars

• US-China tensions escalated with 100% tariff on Chinese EVs
• Discriminatory trade interventions tripled by 2023
• China's export restrictions on critical minerals (gallium, germanium) disrupted global supply chains
• EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) created new trade barriers

2. Digital Infrastructure and Connectivity

• Submarine cables emerged as critical geopolitical assets
• 574 commercial cables operational by early 2024
• Competition between US-led SEA-ME-WE 6 and China's PEACE cable
• India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) reshaping digital connectivity

3. Electoral Impacts on Economic Policy

• Return of state-led populist economics
• Rise of competitive economic nationalism
• Growing backlash against climate regulations
• Emphasis on infrastructure and self-sufficiency

Major Trends and Implications

1. Trade Fragmentation

• Formation of geopolitically aligned trade blocs